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The Bayesian Stability Zoo

Neural Information Processing Systems

Algorithmic stability is a major theme in learning theory, where seminal results have firmly established its close relationship with generalization. Recent research has further highlighted the intricate interplay between stability and additional properties of interest beyond statistical generalization.




Time-Series Anomaly Classification for Launch Vehicle Propulsion Systems: Fast Statistical Detectors Enhancing LSTM Accuracy and Data Quality

Engelstad, Sean P., Darr, Sameul R., Taliaferro, Matthew, Goyal, Vinay K.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Supporting Go/No-Go decisions prior to launch requires assessing real-time telemetry data against redline limits established during the design qualification phase. Family data from ground testing or previous flights is commonly used to detect initiating failure modes and their timing; however, this approach relies heavily on engineering judgment and is more error-prone for new launch vehicles. To address these limitations, we utilize Long-Term Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for supervised classification of time-series anomalies. Although, initial training labels derived from simulated anomaly data may be suboptimal due to variations in anomaly strength, anomaly settling times, and other factors. In this work, we propose a novel statistical detector based on the Mahalanobis distance and forward-backward detection fractions to adjust the supervised training labels. We demonstrate our method on digital twin simulations of a ground-stage propulsion system with 20.8 minutes of operation per trial and O(10^8) training timesteps. The statistical data relabeling improved precision and recall of the LSTM classifier by 7% and 22% respectively.


Manifold limit for the training of shallow graph convolutional neural networks

Tengler, Johanna, Brune, Christoph, Iglesias, José A.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the discrete-to-continuum consistency of the training of shallow graph convolutional neural networks (GCNNs) on proximity graphs of sampled point clouds under a manifold assumption. Graph convolution is defined spectrally via the graph Laplacian, whose low-frequency spectrum approximates that of the Laplace-Beltrami operator of the underlying smooth manifold, and shallow GCNNs of possibly infinite width are linear functionals on the space of measures on the parameter space. From this functional-analytic perspective, graph signals are seen as spatial discretizations of functions on the manifold, which leads to a natural notion of training data consistent across graph resolutions. To enable convergence results, the continuum parameter space is chosen as a weakly compact product of unit balls, with Sobolev regularity imposed on the output weight and bias, but not on the convolutional parameter. The corresponding discrete parameter spaces inherit the corresponding spectral decay, and are additionally restricted by a frequency cutoff adapted to the informative spectral window of the graph Laplacians. Under these assumptions, we prove $Γ$-convergence of regularized empirical risk minimization functionals and corresponding convergence of their global minimizers, in the sense of weak convergence of the parameter measures and uniform convergence of the functions over compact sets. This provides a formalization of mesh and sample independence for the training of such networks.


Character.AI and Google settle with families in teen suicide and self-harm lawsuits

Engadget

Character.AI and Google settle with families in teen suicide and self-harm lawsuits In one case, a 14-year-old bonded with a Daenerys Targaryen chatbot before taking his own life. Character.AI lets you create and share custom chatbots. Character.AI and Google have reportedly agreed to settle multiple lawsuits regarding teen suicide and self-harm. According to, the victims' families and the companies are working to finalize the settlement terms. The families of several teens sued the companies in Florida, Colorado, Texas and New York. The Orlando, FL, lawsuit was filed by the mother of 14-year-old Sewell Setzer III, who used a Character.AI chatbot tailored after Daenerys Targaryen.


Distributionally Robust Markov Games with Average Reward

Roch, Zachary, Wang, Yue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study distributionally robust Markov games (DR-MGs) with the average-reward criterion, a framework for multi-agent decision-making under uncertainty over extended horizons. In average reward DR-MGs, agents aim to maximize their worst-case infinite-horizon average reward, to ensure satisfactory performance under environment uncertainties and opponent actions. We first establish a connection between the best-response policies and the optimal policies for the induced single-agent problems. Under a standard irreducible assumption, we derive a correspondence between the optimal policies and the solutions of the robust Bellman equation, and derive the existence of stationary Nash Equilibrium (NE) based on these results. We further study DR-MGs under the weakly communicating setting, where we construct a set-valued map and show its value is a subset of the best-response policies, convex and upper hemi-continuous, and derive the existence of NE. We then explore algorithmic solutions, by first proposing a Robust Nash-Iteration algorithm and providing convergence guarantees under some additional assumptions and a NE computing oracle. We further develop a temporal-difference based algorithm for DR-MGs, and provide convergence guarantees without any additional oracle or assumptions. Finally, we connect average-reward robust NE to discounted ones, showing that the average reward robust NE can be approximated by the discounted ones under a large discount factor. Our studies provide a comprehensive theoretical and algorithmic foundation for decision-making in complex, uncertain, and long-running multi-player environments.


Disney to invest 1bn in OpenAI, allowing use of characters in video generation tool

The Guardian

Mickey Mouse and Minnie Mouse floats at the Magic Kingdom Park at Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida, on 3 April 2025. Mickey Mouse and Minnie Mouse floats at the Magic Kingdom Park at Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida, on 3 April 2025. Walt Disney has announced a $1bn equity investment in OpenAI, enabling the AI start-up's Sora video generation tool to use its characters. Users of Sora will be able to generate short, user-prompted social videos that draw on more than 200 Disney, Marvel, Pixar and Star Wars characters as part of a three-year licensing agreement between OpenAI and the entertainment giant. A selection of the videos made by users will also be available for streaming on the Disney+ platform. Bob Iger, Disney's CEO, hailed a deal which paired his firm's "iconic stories and characters" with OpenAI's AI technology.


Altruistic Maneuver Planning for Cooperative Autonomous Vehicles Using Multi-agent Advantage Actor-Critic

Toghi, Behrad, Valiente, Rodolfo, Sadigh, Dorsa, Pedarsani, Ramtin, Fallah, Yaser P.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the adoption of autonomous vehicles on our roads, we will witness a mixed-autonomy environment where autonomous and human-driven vehicles must learn to coexist by sharing the same road infrastructure. T o attain socially-desirable behaviors, autonomous vehicles must be instructed to consider the utility of other vehicles around them in their decision-making process. Particularly, we study the maneuver planning problem for autonomous vehicles and investigate how a decentralized reward structure can induce altruism in their behavior and incentivize them to account for the interest of other autonomous and human-driven vehicles. This is a challenging problem due to the ambiguity of a human driver's willingness to cooperate with an autonomous vehicle. Thus, in contrast with the existing works which rely on behavior models of human drivers, we take an end-to-end approach and let the autonomous agents to implicitly learn the decision-making process of human drivers only from experience. W e introduce a multi-agent variant of the synchronous Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C) algorithm and train agents that coordinate with each other and can affect the behavior of human drivers to improve traffic flow and safety.Accepted to 2021 IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR 2021) W orkshop on Autonomous Driving: Perception, Prediction and Planning